Occupations for $500

Alex: “Weathermen, Tarot Card Readers, And Stock Analysts”.

Me: “What are jobs where you can get paid for being consistently wrong?”

I was perusing the business headlines this morning and came across this: “Tim Draper predicts bitcoin will reach $250,000 next year despite FTX collapse.” Not three headlines down was this: “Bitcoin could plunge 70% to $5,000, Standard Charter predicts.”

This little update isn’t about whether Bitcoin will go up or down (that will come later), but more how reading the financial press can either confuse one beyond belief or lead one to pick and choose the narrative that fits their own personal view. The answer to the conflicting volumes of financial information and corporate agendas is math. Plain and simple. Trusting the process we have put in place that uses math, not emotion, to guide our trades and financial decisions have helped Aglis Wealth Management navigate a market that has been nothing short of a disaster in 2022. In a time when the markets are down 25 percent, with a large percentage of stocks trading down more than 40%, Aglis clients on average are holding at a modest 12 percent decrease and we are well positioned to take advantage of the market when it starts its move upward.

We need to remember that the job of the financial press is not necessarily to keep us informed with the best information available, but to sell advertising by getting us to read whatever nonsense it is that they decide to print. While that may be a bit cynical, after nearly 35 years of scanning the headlines, reading the occasional article, there is zero doubt in my mind that too much of conflicting and confusing information can lead us to make emotional, often poor, choices.

The market is driven by 2 things, and 2 things only: Fear, and Greed. It’s amazing to me how the press will play into those emotions, often printing tomes about why the market is doing what it’s doing for reasons that truly no one can understand. More often than not this year, I feel as if the market is gaslighting me into thinking one thing, even though the evidence seems to be clear to the contrary. Perhaps the problem with my previous statement is that the evidence isn’t so clear, and rarely is evidence clear and transparent.

Our economy is a complex maze of business and government entities, often competing over limited resources with far different agendas, all trying to fill their coffers as much as possible while convincing us that their objectives are the “right” ones. All of us get this information from people and organizations with their own agendas, disseminating information that fits their agenda, while we try to pick through what may be nonsense, and what may actually be useful to us and our own agendas.

What we have learned is that it’s a machine that isn’t worth fighting. First, the sheer volume of information is a dearth that swallows up the largest vessel designed to navigate those waters. Second, it’s a swirling, contradictory vortex of adjectives and adverbs that even if we could get through the quantity of it, makes it virtually incomprehensible.

What’s the one thing that doesn’t have an agenda? What’s the one thing that wont lie to us daily? What’s the one thing that doesn’t really want to sell us something by clicking on the link below? Math. Math is the answer. Not a panacea, but a concrete process without illusion.

This year has been an economic and market disaster. While we certainly have taken our lumps, it could have been much worse. What we do know is that this too shall pass. At this point, our goal is to try to avoid as much pain as possible should the market decide to take another turn lower. Conversely, we have our buy points in place should this decide to start a protracted and solid move upward.

As always, we appreciate your confidence and patience. We hope you all have a great holiday season, and if you happen to be chatting with friends and family over that holiday dinner about finances, keep us in mind. We would love to have an opportunity to help any friends and family reach their financial goals.